Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
